T-Bladel Endorses Romney: Predicts on Nov 6 we will have new President Elect

This is actually two post. The top part is the endorsement. The bottom covers why we believe Romney will win. The line separates the two. They can stand alone or together as one article.



Prediction: Mitt & Ann Romney will be in White House come Jan. 2013.

This article covers why T-Bladel has decided to official endorse Mitt Romney for President.  Additionally, the second half covers why we believe Romney will win this race; possibly by large margins.

Throughout the primary season, T-Bladel supported Rick Perry for President.  It was not that Perry was further to the right than everyone else—in fact, the Texas governor’s views on the dream act put him somewhere in the middle on that issue, among others.  The view of this site was that Perry was a pragmatic conservative who could help court Latino voters.  

Romney’s move to the right in the primaries has harmed him with Latino voters.  However, that Romney is not the real one.  The Romney that has been a successful executive and governor of a heavy blue state is the one that is possibly going to be president of the United States.

Yes!  Romney alters his political views to court various factions of the Republican Party (What winning politician has not done that before).  This was not the problem with Perry.  However, Perry turned out to have a problem speaking in front of live audiences.  This is not a problem with Romney.  Romney was able to tear apart every straw man argument that President Obama used during the first presidential debate in early October. 

Throughout the entire Republican Primary, everyone was worried about finding a candidate that could stand toe-to-toe with the president during the debates.  The Republicans found more than that with Romney.  The way Romney came out prepared for the debate shows a person who is able to take on tough challenges.  America faces some tough challenges today.  President Obama has shown himself unable to solve the challenges that we face. 

Romney is known for working across the isle.  There will be plenty of moderate Democrats that will work with Romney to take on the tough challenges.  The same aspect that made Romney want to please the various factions, will push him to want to leave a legacy as a man who fixed a hurt economy and set the nation on a path to fiscal responsibility. 

Romney will not want to go down in history as a right wing ideologue.  Were Obama wanted to accomplish the liberal utopian wish list.  Romney will look at the data and find what works.  It will not matter to him in the end if what is needed falls in line with a ideological argument.  He will understand that his reelection hinges on whether he accomplishes the job.     

This is why T-Bladel is endorsing Mitt Romney for President.

Additionally, we predict Romney will win on Nov. 6.   

The reason we believe this is quite simple.  President Obama is running an ugly campaign that shows extreme desperation.  The kind of campaign the president is running reeks of desperation.  Chicago is putting out ads that do not come out from winning campaigns. 

Ed Morrissey wrote this:

"First, it says something that these groups can’t make an argument for the incumbent.  In the final week, voters usually want a positive argument about why they should vote for a candidate, or at least contrast ads based on policies and records.  Democrats simply don’t have those arguments to make.

"Even more to the point, Democrats have already used these arguments for months.  They ran ads all summer when they had the broadcast airwaves mostly to themselves, and swamped voters with this messaging.  It didn’t work even when they had a money advantage, and they don’t even have that any longer.  People already know about Romney’s wealth; Obama even brought it up a few times in the debates, only to have his straw men dismantled by Romney in real time.  The Bain attacks ended up flopping, as the polling surge for Romney in October proved."

You can hear the worry when Obama's surrogates defend their view that Romney is losing.  If there is a week left in the campaign, and the Obama campaign is purposing new ideas like a "Secretary of Business," the campaign is looking for a new spark.  You do not need a new spark if you think you are winning.  The Obama campaign just released an embarrassing ad comparing voting for Obama to a girl losing her virginity.  This is degrading for a president to have to stoop to methods like this.  Would Obama want his daughters to hear this add? 

Michael Graham of the Boston Herald said that, "These are the juvenile stunts of a second-tier congressional race, not the campaign of an incumbent president. Then again, has any other president posted a picture of his opponent in a dunce cap? Or called his opponent a 'Bullsh***er'n the record?' Obama’s done both." 

Another aspect that we must note is what Gallup is showing in its polls.  Right now Gallup has Romney at or above 50% in its likely voter 7-day rolling average daily trackingpoll.  Romney is sitting at 51% and Obama is at 46%.  That is a five-point spread.  Romney has been above 50% for 14 consecutive days.  No candidate that is above 50% at this point has ever lost the presidential race.  That means history is on Romney’s side here.  It is hard to believe that people will find a reason to swing back to Obama in the little time before Election Day—even though a week is a long time in politics.

In 2008, Rasmussen was the top polling firm on accuracy.  The left will not admit that Rasmussen is the most accurate.  Objective poll watchers know this.  Pew comes in second.  Right now Pew has the race tied.  It is not just Gallup—even though they are widely considered the most reliable by both sides.

The Battleground Poll model shows Obama losing 52 percent to 47 percent.  Rasmussen daily tracking has Obama losing 49 percent to 47 percent.  Pew has him tied: 47 percent to 47 percent.

The Democrats have been pointing towards early voting as the reason Romney’s poll numbers do not matter.  Halloween week four years ago, Gallup released a poll they conducted to see who was winning the early voting battle.  Obama was beating John McCain by 15 points.  However, this Halloween Week, Gallup has Mitt Romney beating Obama 52% to 45%.  This is a swing of 22 points.  

Key Gallup indicators of voter turnout, collected are suggesting that voter turnout will fall short of what it was in 2004 0r 2008.  This could have a huge impact.  Considering that, Obama is winning the registered voter polls, but Romney is winning the likely voter polls.  If only those that are diehard politic watchers show up, Romney will have the advantage.  Romney will likely win the voters that are most informed on the issues.  Although this is a guess by me, and not a scientific poll done my T-Bladel.

Additionally, Obama has to wage a defensive campaign by visiting states he won in 2008.  Romney is aggressively trying to peel off blue states, why Obama has no hope of gaining any red states.  One such state is Pennsylvania.  Romney Super Pac Restore Our Future is running ads in the state forcing Obama to as well.  The Obama campaign had to send Bill Clinton to Minnesota to protect that blue state.

The funny part here is the

Obama Campaign’s David Axelrod and Jim Messina argued that the fact that Romney is competing in these blue states is actually bad news for him.  This from Messina:

‘“The reason why they need to expand the map is because they’re down in the places where they need to win to get 270 electoral votes,” Messina said. 

He was recalling when Bush attempted to compete in California and Hawaii during the 2000 and 2004 campaigns.  However, this is a strange point to make, because Bush won both of those races even though he lost both states.  If it is such a bad idea for Romney to compete in blue states, then why did the Obama campaign tout the fact they may get to compete in red states. 

Even Wisconsin is in play, which until the last few years would have been unthinkable.  Obama is defending states he likely never thought he would.  Even though the campaign is putting on a confident front, spending resources in blue states, especially with only a week to go, is not something they wanted to do.  If this were happening to Romney, the media would be all over it saying he is in trouble.

A week is not long enough for Obama to change the trajectory of this race.  This makes confidently predicting a Romney win much easier.  However, I say this with one thing in mind.  Obama may not be able to change the election outcome, but if Republicans get overconfident and do not come out to vote, then that will change.  As long as the Republican base shows up to vote, Romney will be President this January 2013.