The end of 2012: Hyped Job Report, a Departing Conservative Icon, and a Republican Base that wants to Secede (No Really)

The end of this year is actually the end of the election.  Although the election is over, the immediate side effects are still reverberating throughout the political spectrum.  One being striking in its sure silliness.  Why in the world are people trying to recreate the map below.  

Another interesting week in politics with little actually happening except the surprise news that Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) is leaving the Senate to head the Heritage Foundation.  

This is actually a real surprise.  DeMint was a staunch conservative who would finally see a few more of his own elected to join him in the Senate.  Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Utah Sen. Mike Lee, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio were all elected on the strength of respect for DeMint.  There is little doubt that DeMint helped push the Republican Party to the right.  Liberty has lost a true champion. 

Remember that the conservative movement is not losing DeMint, the Heritage Foundation is huge outlet for DeMint to help shape conservative policy for decades to come.

Republican Study Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) said this was “disappointing”but that “South Carolina’s loss is the country’s gain.” 

The next logical questions is why.  Did DeMint believe he could be more influential from the Heritage Foundation?  It’s possible.   It’s also possible he has seen the writing on the wall.  The Democrats have won the message war—largely with the help of the media.  Take this November’s job report.

CNN Money’s headline says “Unemployment rate falls to lowest level since 2008.”  This is technically true.  However, look deeper into the numbers you will see something much gloomier. 

Salon’s Jared Bernstein calls the job report “A Pleasant Surprise.”  I call it more of the same, with a cherry on top.

Sure on the surface the numbers look decent.  7.7% unemployment is the lowest since December 2008.  It was expected to be 7.9%.  Private sector jobs rose by 147,000.  This is why we are seeing the headlines I posted above.  However, they are deceptive. If little progress is the new good, then we are truly in trouble.

According to Citigroup, ““Far more robust monthly averages than 150,000 jobs per month would be needed for a true restoration of normal labor markets.”

James Pethokoukis lays this argument out by saying that two-tenths of the drop in unemployment came because people stopped looking for work.  If labor force participation was the same as in November of 2011, we would be sitting at 8.3% unemployment.  Additionally, if we know Reagan had a much more robust recovery.  Jobs actually came rushing back when Reagan pushed his policy through Congress. 

Pethokoukis writes that “If labor force participation was at its January 2009 level, the unemployment rate would be a whopping 10.7%. Now, some of the drop in the LFP is due to demographic reasons, primarily the aging of the US population. But even taking that into account would give you a much higher unemployment rate than 7.7%. If you go by the pre-recession CBO forecast of the 2012 LFP rate, the unemployment rate would be 10.4%.”

That is not to mention the fact incomes have risen by 1.7% but inflation by 2.2%, which leaves little room for spending more money. 

So even though the Democrats had come out of the election in a strong position, it is likely that the economy is going to make it rough on them unless something changes.  Sure, Republicans can still blow it by sticking to the social issues, anti-immigration issues, and pro-succession issue.  I still cannot believe I am saying the last part.  I am not confident that this can be fixed.

Look, I am no fan of Public Policy Polling but even if this is 5% off, it is a problem.  Their post-election poll was pretty close too. 

According to PPP “25% of Republicans say they would like their state to secede from the union compared to 56% who want to stay and 19% who aren't sure.” This is unbelievable.  I’m actually shocked by this, because here I am writing all year that I cannot understand why people actually believe the party of Lincoln is full of racist.  

Then after an election where the first African American President is reelected, people in the party are either pushing or don’t care if their states try’s to leave the union.  According to PPP, this could be because the Republican Party’s numbers are declining.  This surprises me little all things considering. 

It makes me wonder if these people do not see the irony, or maybe the Democrats and liberals are correct.  Is the south going to rise. 

The Republican Party has to either change this attitude or hope the Democrats suck bad enough to force people into giving them a chance again.  I would not at all be surprised to find out DeMint left to get away from the seceding nonsense.  The economy is bad for Democrats, Republicans are bad for themselves.